As I understand it blocking is weight + pass/run blocking + strength.

How important is position experience when it comes to OLs and other players that block on plays? The same question goes for play familiarity.

70% of play effectiveness is determined by position experience, offensive play knowledge, and defensive play knowledge.


So, basically, 80% of all player effectiveness is out of your control at any given time.

I would go as far as saying blocking has more complicated algorithms used at any given time per play per situation .Understanding that part is far more important than any experience gained. Especially after they play 8 games at the position.

How in the world do you figure that 80% of a Players Ability is out of your Control?

You choose where to play them... so Positional Experience is under your Control.
You choose your Plays... so Your Play Knowledge is under your Control.
You choose when to Sub... so Fatigue is under your Control.

75% of the Player's Ability is under your Control.

The only thing you don't control is Opponent Plays and Crowd Noise. 50% of the time, in a Season, Crowd Noise is on your side... and 50% of the time it is not. Play Offs can differ due to Home Field Advantage/Seeding.

So there is 25% of a Player's Ability you can't control, of which 10% is in your favor 50% of the time and the other 15% you can Mitigate through Scouting to learn your Opponents Plays.

It's not nearly as bad as you seem to try to make it out to be.

Note also that the breakdown listed is the impact of this control on the overall solution. For blocking, this is just one factor. Others include the attribute difference, of course (run block vs run defense or pass block vs pass rush), weight, strength, etc. Some decisions rely more heavily on this breakdown, others it is just a small factor.

[quote="Brrexkl]How in the world do you figure that 80% of a Players Ability is out of your Control?

You choose where to play them... so Positional Experience is under your Control.
You choose your Plays... so Your Play Knowledge is under your Control.
You choose when to Sub... so Fatigue is under your Control.

75% of the Player's Ability is under your Control.

The only thing you don't control is Opponent Plays and Crowd Noise. 50% of the time, in a Season, Crowd Noise is on your side... and 50% of the time it is not. Play Offs can differ due to Home Field Advantage/Seeding.

So there is 25% of a Player's Ability you can't control, of which 10% is in your favor 50% of the time and the other 15% you can Mitigate through Scouting to learn your Opponents Plays.

It's not nearly as bad as you seem to try to make it out to be.[/quote]

1) There is no metric for crowd noise so we do not know how it is calculated or whether it actually benefits a home team. -- Crowd noise is then out of your control completely.

2) You can choose where to play a player, but the rate at which that player gains position experience is out of your control. Most players gain it quickly, but some do not. They see the most gains when playing snaps in games, so if you have a player get hurt and you need to switch a player's position to compensate (RB -> WR, WLB -> SLB) that player will not have had as much position experience.

3) The rate at which players gain play knowledge of the plays that you run is well beyond your control. Most NFL players are expected to learn the basics of a playbook before the preseason, but in the game, your players will only gain a basic understanding of your playbook after an entire season of running the plays if they did not have the play knowledge when they were generated. The only thing you can control is making sure the players you draft have high intelligence and will learn the plays just slightly faster than average. If it's a defensive player, forget it.

4) Your point about the plays you run against is valid. I can't argue with that.

So the only 20% you really have control over is fatigue, and even there your control is limited. Your DBs will fatigue faster than the rest of the team for instance, leaving you vulnerable on third downs and long drives.

Most games player effectiveness comes down to putting your players in positions where they have the most position experience and then hoping the random number generator ends up favoring you.

For #2 and #3 the primary driver is player intelligence.

Even for highly intelligent players it takes way too long for them to learn a play.

Really, how many weeks do you think an NFL team spends practicing the same play before their smartest players "get it"?

My guess would be one or less.

In fact a new game plan each week may have several hundred plays that the player is expected to learn and run that week.
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/11/17/nfl-carson-palmer-arizona-cardinals-inside-game-plan

My only counter argument to that is it's not "knows vs. doesn't know", it's the degree to which the player knows the play. And in fact, it's doubtful that any of the plays in a given week are being introduced for the first time. All that groundwork is laid during training camp and then built on for a given week's game plan refreshing what was learned earlier for that week's game. Just like in MFN, where the player learns some in TC, in preseason, and in any game where a given play is called. It's a progression.

I'm not saying familiarity isn't slow, but you guys are comparing apples and oranges with this "players learn a play in 1 week" thing.