Volatility is incredibly important to the health of the game - the opportunity for a probably high-value player to fall short, or an overlooked rookie to excel in the pro game is vital to keep rosters a little off-balanced.
The problem is that, at present, volatility is a one-time deal. Rookie training camp is the make-or-break for every player, after that, their future is set. Bust at TC? Never going to have a career. Boom, and you just won the lottery.
My suggestion has two components, either of which make it far more interesting and less prone to being all-or-nothing.
1. Make the volatility direction of travel coin-flip every season, not just at rookie training camp. That way, a player who busts in their rookie year may rebound in subsequent seasons, until they reach their final evolution. The same would also be true in reverse - that lucky roll in year 1, could get a catastrophic result in year 2. This would also reinvigorate the free agency market as players look to improve their chances of a pro career even if they came up short rookie year.
2. Expand the impact of volatility. Make it apply in game situations as well. This way it becomes a measure of the temperament of the player. A roll against volatility before each game could boost their playing stats by up to 10%, decrease them in a similar way, or have no effect. Volatile players become wild cards, low volatility become dependable. You could take it a step further and allow league admins to set the min/max change in stats allowing a league where volatility could be WILD set to 100%, or a non-factor, setting it to 0%.
These measures won't change the season outcome. The best-run rosters will still take home the silverware, but it'll add a little more variance into how games work out. It'll also avoid rookie trading camp being an all-or-nothing event.
Volatility is incredibly important to the health of the game - the opportunity for a probably high-value player to fall short, or an overlooked rookie to excel in the pro game is vital to keep rosters a little off-balanced.
The problem is that, at present, volatility is a one-time deal. Rookie training camp is the make-or-break for every player, after that, their future is set. Bust at TC? Never going to have a career. Boom, and you just won the lottery.
My suggestion has two components, either of which make it far more interesting and less prone to being all-or-nothing.
1. Make the volatility direction of travel coin-flip every season, not just at rookie training camp. That way, a player who busts in their rookie year may rebound in subsequent seasons, until they reach their final evolution. The same would also be true in reverse - that lucky roll in year 1, could get a catastrophic result in year 2. This would also reinvigorate the free agency market as players look to improve their chances of a pro career even if they came up short rookie year.
2. Expand the impact of volatility. Make it apply in game situations as well. This way it becomes a measure of the temperament of the player. A roll against volatility before each game could boost their playing stats by up to 10%, decrease them in a similar way, or have no effect. Volatile players become wild cards, low volatility become dependable. You could take it a step further and allow league admins to set the min/max change in stats allowing a league where volatility could be WILD set to 100%, or a non-factor, setting it to 0%.
These measures won't change the season outcome. The best-run rosters will still take home the silverware, but it'll add a little more variance into how games work out. It'll also avoid rookie trading camp being an all-or-nothing event.
I agree that the one-time boom or bust is a flaw. That's not necessarily how it goes in real life (although it could).
What if instead of re rolling every year though, it re rolled after a coaching change, maybe even after x amount of time with a new coach? Or after signing with a new team?
In real life, a draft "bust" sometimes find motivation with a new coach or team. Or, a draft "boom" might really struggle with a new coach or team.
Could even be tied to the supposed push to make coordinator/position coaches matter. Maybe that already happens and we just don’t know it. Each player has a certain “best” or “worst” system or playbook they fit into, but it’s a secret?
