Tell that to every 3-4 defense I have, averaging 4.9 yards allowed…FZ was a solid 2 yard against almost every offensive formation and play type. I don’t think they are in the same league at all.

It’s not as dominant and can be beaten. It’s only truly strong against the 113 formation, even then there’s a couple of passes and a few runs that work against it.

I ran a basic probability model against it since I've been using ChatGPT to help me write better python code, and it's as dominant.

Basically, I set a success metric of 5 yards for a short pass and 4 yards for a inside or outside run and then set an alpha and beta prior of .5. Against the 113, 203, 122, 212, and 311 there were 15 plays that had a probability of > .5 against the 113. And most of those had a low distribution, so they can't be trusted.

So as long as it’s only situationally dominant, it’s hardly the same as flat zone…never a fan of eliminating the handful of useful plays we have to begin with. Maybe it’s not feasible to have a “rock, paper, scissors” system for play calls, but there should be more than one strategy that works.

How much data do you have? I have about 30-35 seasons worth of data and defensively I rarely use it outside of 113. It just depends on what plays people are calling.

That's probably what I have in the multiple leagues I was collecting it for and that I ran the model against. Agreed that it does the best at the 113.

setherick wrote:
When this move was made, JDB should have also removed the 3-4 Cover 1. It's as effective and less vulnerable than the FZ was.

Play: Man Cover 1
Formation: 3-4 Normal
LB: Zone In
Sec: 1-Deep Man
In Playbook: No
Off Familiarity: -92%
Def Familiarity: 14%
Times Used/Avg: 0/0

I know this has been talked about before (Off Familiarity: -92%) but this bugs me to no end.

When these plays were removed, I thought just the 230 FB Dive was removed.

Was this play also removed: Strong I Normal FB Dive Strong

At the same time the 221 fb dive was removed. It was the closest play to the MFN tush push. (23t - fb dive)

I think we should remove every play Seth uses when he plays against me, but just for that game.

Might have a chance then.