I'm on the internet trying to understand best defense formations and tactics to cover different offense plays etc and get my head around whether zone/man/blitz etc are best off agst long/med/short/inrun/outrun etc etc....when it occurred to me:

According to the gameplan I set a % probability for diff off plays - let's say 45% short pass and so on totalling 100%. Then the personnel preferences are made too, thus giving a weighting as to which tactics will actually be used.

On the defense side, I am trying to choose plays with which my team are familiar with, have success at, and that might counter the opponents (if I knew that magic rule!). From there, one of those options will be chosen when they attack.

So....

If they choose to play PA curls (no idea what that is but it's a name that's stuck with me!), my team will not take any notice of this but instead simply roll the dice of random / weighting / probability and come up with the defense play. So each time my defense might be getting it wrong?!

Surely isn't the idea to have a plan of what to do if they do x or y. If they pass short, do this. If they run outside weak do that?!?!

Either that's too complicated; or I've got confused....OR is that what happens in real life - does the defense have to choose the formation first?! I assumed the offense lined up first and then the defense tried to counter it??

Hope someone can enlighten me late on a Sunday!

Ah ha! I've just discovered a new element to the game which I'd not been doing on the Gameplanning - setting the Run/Pass settings under the Defense tab.

It's great - it shows what % pass/run they have been doing for each down, sector and distance! This game is awesome!

Watch out tonight Arizona (eyeballl), after all this new knowledge I'll be pushing you lot to the wire!! :O

on offense you set the probability for each type of play, short pass, medium pass, long pass, inside run, outside run and each personnel set e.g. 2RB/1TE/2WR, 1RB/1TE/3WR, etc.....

on defense your coaches have no way of knowing what type of play is being called, all they can tell before the play starts is what personnel set is being used (can only act on what they see, they aren't mind readers) so the AI will match up your defensive formation to the offensive personnel set i.e.
3/4 or 4/3 against 2WR
nickel against 3WR
dime against 4WR
quarter against 5WR
if you don't have a defensive play of a formation that matches up against the offensive personnel the AI will choose at random (i think, someone correct me if this is wrong)

you'll be pleased to know that I now understand the Defense section where it says Secondary, and what the role of the CB, SS & FS actually are! It's all starting to make sense now. Made some further adjustments for tonight's game - so very excited about seeing the outcome now!!

Ah, that makes things so much clearer in my head now. Right, so the AI does help in repsect of at least fielding an appropriate group of players but then it's down to me to have ensured that I know which 2WR tactics they use, and to counter that with some good 34/43 ones etc etc.

That's one of the most useful bits of information that I didn't know. Is that what they do in real life then? If so, that's prob why people have assumed I knew that.

I'm knackered tonight, but will really get my teeth into that tomro evening!

Thanks mate!

you're welcome, and yes that's what they do in real life
they match personnel, then decide on a defensive play and guess whether the offense is going to run or pass, if they aren't sure they will keep the focus neutral
set up against run - bonus against a run play / negative against a pass play
set up against pass - bonus against a pass play / negative against a run play
set up neutral - no bonuses but also no negatives

i usually keep focus neutral unless an opponent is at least 70% likely to run or pass in a certain situation and have been in that situation at least 10-15 times(to give a baseline) then how much i adjust the slider for neutral, run or pass depends on several variables
how many times the opposing team has been in a certain situation
what the actual percentage is
where on the field it is (i'm more likely to lean toward staying neutral and giving up a few yards instead of choosing run/pass and risking giving up big yards the closer my opponent is to my end zone)

My experience (which is limited, I will admit) is that it seems to choose randomly from the next closest formations. For example, I had a game plan that didn't have any 3-4 or 4-3 plays available to a lot of situations. When the offense called 2WR formations in those situations, it looked like the AI chose between goalline and nickle.

Perfect thanks. That was a new screen to me also tonight. I've gone very low on the neutral as I didn't understand it. I'll keep it that way I think - why not! Go all in I say!

Ah yes now I've read I am a real bone head! I better tweak a few things for tomorrow match quickly! Yes I guess if 55/45 pass /run I'm better setting up neutral