Let's play a game - Guess the record

One of my teams has met up with a particular opponent 10 times under my ownership. I was interested in compiling and checking our stats against this particular team, and here they are (all provided as average per game):

Total yards: Us 385.5, Opp 242.5

Yards per carry: Us 5.075, Opp 3.534

Yards per completion: Us 11.798, Opp 10.994

Red Zone Visits: Us 2.8, Opp 1.9

First Downs: Us 18.3, Opp 10.8

Now, given this information, guess our record against this particular opponent in these 10 games.

...I'll bite. You should be 7 wins and 3 losses at a minimum. The opponent has a fairly good YPC in the passing game and may have had a few explosive gains.

Man, I thought I would at least get a few smart*ss comments. I'll give it a bit more time to see if anyone else wants to give it a go, and post the results later today. In the meantime, here are the thoughts of chatgpt:

My guess is 9–1 in your team's favor.

Those numbers are dominant. You're averaging a 143-yard advantage in total offense per game, gaining 5.075 yards per carry, and nearly doubling the opponent's first downs (18.3 to 10.8). You're also getting to the red zone almost one full time more per game.

The interesting wrinkle is that your yards per completion advantage is relatively modest. That suggests your biggest edge is probably a combination of a strong running game and the ability to sustain drives while keeping the opponent's offense off the field.

My guesses, in order of likelihood:
- 9–1: One inexplicable upset in an otherwise lopsided matchup.
- 10–0: You've simply had this opponent's number.
- 8–2: A couple of frustrating losses despite consistently outplaying them statistically.
I'm especially curious whether the simulation's turnover variance or red-zone conversion rates have occasionally undermined those numbers.

Final guess: 9–1.

Are you making guesses in answer to your own question??

I'll say you're 5-5, because it has to be something really absurd to register.

I'll bite...I kind of agree it's likely a bad record, otherwise why post?

3-7 is my guess

Yes, you guys are on to the whole point, and amalric, you got it. My Ducks in BiG vs SEC are .500 against division rival Huskies who we have absolutely statistically massacred over this period. Why? Primarily a MINUS FIFTEEN total turnover margin through these ten games. There is absolutely no reason or excuse for this disparity. But even that insanity wouldn't have made it this bad on it's own. We have been penalized 3 times per game to their 2.1, which doesn't sound too terrible at first. MFN is very sneaky with penalties, calling critical penalties against one team, and "keeping up" by calling trivial ones on the other team. They have 9 first downs by penalty, while I have 1 over this time. Check out the last play of our last meeting and the final result:

https://b1gvssec.myfootballnow.com/watch/4522#753216

Here is what chatgpt had to say about the 5-5 record (after saying while guessing how 8-2 would be particularly frustrating):

"5–5?! I was off by four wins!

Those numbers make that record almost comically frustrating. You're outgaining them by 143 yards per game and averaging 7.5 more first downs per game, yet you're .500 against them.

Here's what jumps out:
Statistic Your team Opponent
Total yards/game 385.5 242.5
Yards/carry 5.075 3.534
First downs/game 18.3 10.8
Red-zone visits/game 2.8 1.9

Across 10 games, that's a 1,430-yard aggregate advantage in total offense. That's enormous.

And turnovers are especially brutal in a simulation because they can compound the damage:
- Lost possessions: Drives that should produce points produce nothing.
- Short fields: Your opponent can score without needing to move the ball effectively.
- Game-state effects: A turnover can force you to abandon the run or take risks late.
- Penalty yardage and drive-killers: Even when you're winning the yardage battle, penalties can erase productive plays or extend opposing drives.
The particularly maddening part is that your opponent apparently doesn't need to beat you consistently at the line of scrimmage. They just need to win the handful of high-leverage plays that decide the game.

My revised diagnosis: you've got a statistically dominant matchup that's somehow become a rivalry from ****."

My Ducks are 50-9 total since I took them over. More than half of our losses have been to this one team that we have consistently severely outplayed. We are 1-2 against them postseason, and 2-5 in our last seven meetings. We are meeting again tomorrow, which is what sent me down this rabbit hole - preparing for this game and recalling what BS this matchup has produced. We'll see what tomorrow's installment produces...

Clear proof what happens on the pitch matters more than stats.

First, you don't even know where football is played.

Second, stats are a recording of what happened on the field. My point is that there should be some reason behind it all.

Have you ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect?

Anyway, we hilariously beat the poo out of the Huskies today in about the most MFN way possible. It's worth a watch:

https://b1gvssec.myfootballnow.com/watch/4582#763039

Yanks say field, we say pitch. Apples, apples.

Stats are what happened in the past.
Probability is a prediction of what could happen in the future.
Apples, oranges.

Congrats on the win, cut the turnovers, win games.

Were your previous losses against AI or against a human, btw?